Private equity investments are down sharply. That’s no surpise. But they are down in proportion to overall M&A activity, which means that strategic acquisitions are increasing. Strategics can often offer stock, and public companies may now be better able to secure debt than private equity groups. So, what is the longer term forecast for private equity?
The deepening credit crisis obviously makes it more difficult and potentially more expensive to borrow capital. But it may also make it harder to pay back borrowed money. The worsening general economic conditions are reducing the values of portfolio companies. As private equity groups spend more time and energy on these portfolio companies, they will be likely need to hold onto these companies longer to generate reasonable returns. Restructuring the portfolio companies, combining them with other companies, pursuing add-ons, and generally being more hands-on with management takes time. Expect fewer new platform investments and longer holding periods.
Yet, despite the doom and gloom, there are new funds being formed on a daily basis. Investors all over the world still have an appetite for US private equity investing. Some private equity groups are positioning themselves as special situations funds and others are deciding to focus more on distressed debt investing.
Private equity is certainly not going away. But the landscape is changing. The expectations are evolving. The types of investments are morphing. The next year, scratch that, the next couple of months should be interesting.
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